NFL Super Bowl Best Bets: Chiefs vs Eagles Odds, Prediction
What statistical trends might influence the development of some of the props on Super Bowl night between Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles ?
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles
FEBRUARY 12, 2023, 6:30 PM ET
STATE FARM STADIUM
Rushing Towards the End Zone
This week, numerous rushing touchdown props are attempting to entice betters. Keep in mind that Philadelphia’s ground game ranked fifth in terms of total yards and per game during the regular season. Philadelphia scored 32 touchdowns while carrying the ball, eight more than Dallas, which finished in second place. In the playoffs, they scored seven more touchdowns in this manner while crushing the Giants and 49ers.
Consider that half of the 32 regular-season touchdowns resulted from chasing in the red zone. As much as Jalen Hurts improved his passing game, these Eagles are better with their claws digging into the earth.
The Chiefs cannot be held to the same standard. In the regular season, Kansas City scored 18 touchdowns on the ground, but none in the playoffs. Andy Reid’s ability to cook up something special in the red zone should never be underestimated.
Over 4.5 seems to undermine Philadelphia’s passing game. Under 4.5 feels like a sweet spot. Who would be surprised if the Eagles score three times from close range and the Chiefs at least once?
I Too Like to Live Dangerously
Analyzing every aspect of a single game permits us to delve into more obscure statistics and probabilities. While perusing the Super Bowl team props page, we noticed something peculiar. Conversions for fourth down. We just discussed how the Eagles’ legs torment their opponents. When attempting to reach the glorious first down marker on fourth-and-1 or fourth-and-inches, a ground attack is also devastatingly effective.
During the regular season, Philadelphia attempted the fourth-most fourth-down plays in the NFL. Their success rate of 68.8 percent also placed them in fourth place. Additionally, they have executed flawlessly in both of their playoff games thus far. KC may have a higher success rate, but this season they only felt the need to take a risk 12 times.
The Eagles’ “yes” for a fourth-down conversion is incredibly enticing.
Be Special to the Great
The discussion of great teams cannot be restricted to offence and defence, right? Let’s not pretend that Adam Vinatieri had no hand in some of the Patriots’ early Super Bowl victories.
However, what about the kickers in this game? This does not appear to be a situation in which Philadelphia will rely heavily on kicker Jake Elliot. At least not based on the previous section’s discussion and the team’s tendency to throw caution to the wind and go for broke on fourth down.
On the other hand, Harrison Butker is an intriguing prop for the Chief. During the regular season, he only converted 75% of his field goals, yet he kicked the longest field goal of the year from 62 yards. In his two postseason games, Butker has a perfect record of 5/5. In addition, all of his kicks were crucial to the victory, as Kansas City’s entire victory margin through two games was only 10 points.
The Over 7.5 point total for Harrison Butker appears to be a solid wager.
A.J. for a TD
A.J. Brown, a stud in Tennessee, was one of the greatest offseason acquisitions last year. After relocating to Philadelphia and packing his belongings, he continued where he had left off despite his new surroundings and hues. He was outstanding during the regular season, accumulating 1,496 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 88.0 yards per game. These statistics place him comfortably in the top five among wide receivers.
In the playoffs, things have changed dramatically. Brown has only 50 total yards and no touchdowns through two games. Reading between the lines reveals that the running game handled business against New York and, in particular, San Francisco. The star wideout’s services were simply unnecessary. The Eagles are facing their most difficult test to date, and all hands will be required. Kansas City’s pass defence ranks in the middle of the pack despite all of its other strengths.
It appears that A.J. Brown will explode and become the receiver with the most receptions.
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