Football Bet of the Day: Kane to score is boring but valuable

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The Darvel fairytale concluded as predicted on Monday, giving us a 9/5 win to kick off the week. Tuesday’s at Evens or Longer is nothing fancy. I considered Wrexham-1 for their match against Woking, but I decided against it. I considered Burnley-1 for their match against Watford but decided against it. Instead, I decided to settle for something incredibly dull, but I believe it has a greater than 50 percent chance of occurring, and is therefore of some value…

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Football – Tuesday 14 February, 2023

  • Back Harry Kane to score anytime at 5/4

The England captain has scored 25 goals in 34 Champions League games for Spurs. That statistic alone is pretty darn impressive and it comes with the added caveat that this season hasn’t been his most prolific in the competition, not by the longshot, as the all-time leading scorer in club history has only found the back of the net once in the six group games.

What Kane has been doing all season long however is banging them in at domestic level. 17 goals in 23 games in the Premier League is a stonking record. Only eight times in 23 games in the top flight has he not found the back of the net. Spurs’ aren’t a one-man team but with the form of Son being intermittent at best, their talisman has more than been carrying the load.

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So statistically speaking, Kane has scored in more games than he hasn’t so far in the 22/23 season in all competitions. When you throw in the fact AC Milan are having a bit of a sticky spell at the moment (although they did beat Torino in their last match) but before that games, I Rossenori had conceded ten times in three games. In their group stage matches, Chelsea managed to score five times in their two games. The home side clearly have some defensive frailties.

The kicker for me however is Kane is a penalty taker and in European games more spot kicks seem to be awarded than ever before. Even if he doesn’t find the back of the net from open play, the possibility that Spurs are awarded a penalty in itself boosts his chances of scoring. It might be a bit boring and not some random league across Europe but we look for value and I think Kane at odds against to score in any game is just that.

*All prices correct at the time of writing.

Football Bet of the Day Profit/Loss 2023:

Staked: 37 Points
Returns: 43.68 Points
P/L: +6.68 Points

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