Betfair, an international betting exchange that offers wagering on politics, said that British bettors believe the Conservatives are losing their momentum. According to statistics, customers believe that the party may lose a whopping 201 seats or more at the next general election.
While Betfair customers wouldn’t be necessarily right, they have previously correctly predicted certain outcomes, such as Liz Truss’ resignation.
However, such a shakeup would mean a big change in British politics. For reference, the only time the Conservatives have lost more than 200 seats in the past hundred years was during the 1945 election.
Betfair data shows that more than £3 million have been traded on the next general election markets. Customers seem to favor Sir Keir Starmer’s party, believing it would surpass Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives.
Bettors Believe the Labour Will Prevail
Sam Rosbottom, a Betfair Politics spokesperson, commented on the results, saying that the punters seem pretty convinced about the outcome of the next general election. He pointed out that the Labour Party has been growing strong and is the favorite at 8/15 to win a majority.
Rosbottom pointed out that if punters are correct, the only thing Sunak and the Conservatives can hope to achieve before the elections would be damage control.
In addition to facing challenges during his campaigning, Sunak has also faced difficulties reaching an agreement on key policies with senior ministers. He now risks the Labour Party forming a government, if they manage to secure 130 seats or more. While not an easy task, Betfair customers suggest that this is definitely an outcome the Conservatives should take in mind.
The Labour Party Is on the Rise
Additional Betfair data shows that customers believe the next General Election will take place between October and December 2024 (priced at 4/9). As mentioned, the Labour Party is the favorite to win the elections at 8/15. The Conservative Party, meanwhile, has only a small chance to retain its majority at 10/1, according to bettors.
Rosbotton concluded that punters believe the Conservatives will lose more than 201 sears at 5/2. He added that the Labour Party is currently doubling down on its efforts to gain support in Scotland and is an overwhelming favorite to take the seat from the Scottish National Party at 1/20.